<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=4 width=432 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>WEEK THREE BEST BETS
3% NEW ORLEANS +7
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ST LOUIS –7 New Orleans 47.5
5-3-0/6-2-0 22.8-24.9
Speaking of poor defenses to pick on, let’s continue to do so with the Rams. Here’s another team that just shouldn’t be laying points, especially this many to a team who can also move the ball. Yes, the Saints are without McAllister but they’ll still be able to run the ball. The Rams are allowing 5.7 ypr against 4.7 ypr and 6.5 yps against 5.2 yps. While the Saints haven’t run the ball well this year, averaging just 2.8 ypr against 3.2 ypr, they are averaging 6.1 yps against 5.3 yps and should be able to move the ball against the porous Rams secondary. Going the other way, the Rams should have their success too, averaging 4.6 ypr against 4.3 ypr and 7.5 yps against 6.8 yps. The Saints defense hasn’t been any better, allowing 4.5 ypr against 4.0 ypr and 6.9 yps against 5.8 yps. The Rams qualify in a negative 174-107-11 situation based on their horrible defensive performance last week. Meanwhile, the Saints qualify in 36-9-3 scheduling situation that plays on teams during week three that began their season with two straight home games and are now on the road. That situation is 24-4 since 1992 and 24-5-2 as underdogs since 1983. The Rams also qualify in a negative scheduling situation, which is 109-53-2 as long as they remain favored by seven or more. Plenty of value here with NO, as my final numbers suggest a two point and 3.5 point Rams victory before accounting for the situations. Final total projects to 45 points and this game qualifies in a terrific under situation, which is 322-237-12 and won with the Denver under last week. Unfortunately these two teams also fit the profile of two teams who should play a high scoring game that could go over the total. That profile is enough to keep me off the under but I will lean that way with a Best Bet on the Saints. NEW ORLEANS 23 ST LOUIS 20
OAKLAND –3 Tampa Bay 34
0-1-0/1-0-0 0-45.0
I really don’t have any opinion on this game. There are no situations that favor either team here. Both team’s defenses are playing well, with TB allowing just 4.1 yppl against 4.7 yppl and Oakland allowing just 4.2 yppl against 4.3 yppl. On offense, TB has been absolutely horrible and has yet to score a touchdown this year on offense. They are averaging just 3.5 yppl against 4.1 yppl. For Oakland, they haven’t been able to run the ball, averaging just 2.8 ypr against 3.5 ypr but are throwing the ball extremely well, averaging 7.2 yps against 5.7 yps, for a total offense of 5.4 yppl against 4.7 yppl. Final numbers differ greatly depending on what I use, supporting TB by one or Oakland by 12.5 points. Final total projected is 34 points, which is where the total lies. Probably not a very good game to watch nor bet on. OAKLAND 17 TAMPA BAY 10
WASHINGTON –1 Dallas 36
7-3-0/5-5-0 24.3-19.2
Another tough game for me to handicap because I have situations going both ways in this game. I still don’t believe Washington is that good and they certainly haven’t played great teams yet, in TB and the Giants. The Dallas offense has been the surprise of the season, averaging 6.3 yppl against 5.7 yppl. Most surprising is their passing game, averaging 7.6 yps against 6.7 yps. They are averaging 432 yards per game this year, which is unheard of lately for a Dallas offense. The Dallas defense is slightly below average, allowing 5.0 ypr against 4.3 ypr and 5.7 yppl against 5.5 yppl. Much of those numbers are because they played a very good offense in Minnesota. Last week they held the Cleveland offense to just 202 yards and 3.7 yppl. The Washington defense has played well but I’m not sure it is because they are that good, but rather they have played some poor offenses. They are allowing just 3.7 yppl against 4.5 yppl, including 2.1 ypr against 3.9 ypr. Their passing game is allowing 4.7 yps against 4.8 yps, which makes the passing game about average. On offense, they are struggling, averaging just 4.7 yppl against 5.0 yppl. The passing game has been especially poor, averaging just 5.3 yps against 5.9 yps. Dallas qualifies in an early season situation, which is 98-50-6, and they also qualify in another scheduling situation, which is 107-61-4. Washington, however, qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 533-409-33, including subsets, which are 431-304-24 and 326-219-17. Final numbers differ, showing Dallas by one point and Washington by eight points. The situations favor Dallas and I will lean that way, but it is a weak opinion. Final total actually suggests about 42 points being scored and I will lean with the over in this game. DALLAS 24 WASHINGTON 20
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3% NEW ORLEANS +7
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ST LOUIS –7 New Orleans 47.5
5-3-0/6-2-0 22.8-24.9
Speaking of poor defenses to pick on, let’s continue to do so with the Rams. Here’s another team that just shouldn’t be laying points, especially this many to a team who can also move the ball. Yes, the Saints are without McAllister but they’ll still be able to run the ball. The Rams are allowing 5.7 ypr against 4.7 ypr and 6.5 yps against 5.2 yps. While the Saints haven’t run the ball well this year, averaging just 2.8 ypr against 3.2 ypr, they are averaging 6.1 yps against 5.3 yps and should be able to move the ball against the porous Rams secondary. Going the other way, the Rams should have their success too, averaging 4.6 ypr against 4.3 ypr and 7.5 yps against 6.8 yps. The Saints defense hasn’t been any better, allowing 4.5 ypr against 4.0 ypr and 6.9 yps against 5.8 yps. The Rams qualify in a negative 174-107-11 situation based on their horrible defensive performance last week. Meanwhile, the Saints qualify in 36-9-3 scheduling situation that plays on teams during week three that began their season with two straight home games and are now on the road. That situation is 24-4 since 1992 and 24-5-2 as underdogs since 1983. The Rams also qualify in a negative scheduling situation, which is 109-53-2 as long as they remain favored by seven or more. Plenty of value here with NO, as my final numbers suggest a two point and 3.5 point Rams victory before accounting for the situations. Final total projects to 45 points and this game qualifies in a terrific under situation, which is 322-237-12 and won with the Denver under last week. Unfortunately these two teams also fit the profile of two teams who should play a high scoring game that could go over the total. That profile is enough to keep me off the under but I will lean that way with a Best Bet on the Saints. NEW ORLEANS 23 ST LOUIS 20
OAKLAND –3 Tampa Bay 34
0-1-0/1-0-0 0-45.0
I really don’t have any opinion on this game. There are no situations that favor either team here. Both team’s defenses are playing well, with TB allowing just 4.1 yppl against 4.7 yppl and Oakland allowing just 4.2 yppl against 4.3 yppl. On offense, TB has been absolutely horrible and has yet to score a touchdown this year on offense. They are averaging just 3.5 yppl against 4.1 yppl. For Oakland, they haven’t been able to run the ball, averaging just 2.8 ypr against 3.5 ypr but are throwing the ball extremely well, averaging 7.2 yps against 5.7 yps, for a total offense of 5.4 yppl against 4.7 yppl. Final numbers differ greatly depending on what I use, supporting TB by one or Oakland by 12.5 points. Final total projected is 34 points, which is where the total lies. Probably not a very good game to watch nor bet on. OAKLAND 17 TAMPA BAY 10
WASHINGTON –1 Dallas 36
7-3-0/5-5-0 24.3-19.2
Another tough game for me to handicap because I have situations going both ways in this game. I still don’t believe Washington is that good and they certainly haven’t played great teams yet, in TB and the Giants. The Dallas offense has been the surprise of the season, averaging 6.3 yppl against 5.7 yppl. Most surprising is their passing game, averaging 7.6 yps against 6.7 yps. They are averaging 432 yards per game this year, which is unheard of lately for a Dallas offense. The Dallas defense is slightly below average, allowing 5.0 ypr against 4.3 ypr and 5.7 yppl against 5.5 yppl. Much of those numbers are because they played a very good offense in Minnesota. Last week they held the Cleveland offense to just 202 yards and 3.7 yppl. The Washington defense has played well but I’m not sure it is because they are that good, but rather they have played some poor offenses. They are allowing just 3.7 yppl against 4.5 yppl, including 2.1 ypr against 3.9 ypr. Their passing game is allowing 4.7 yps against 4.8 yps, which makes the passing game about average. On offense, they are struggling, averaging just 4.7 yppl against 5.0 yppl. The passing game has been especially poor, averaging just 5.3 yps against 5.9 yps. Dallas qualifies in an early season situation, which is 98-50-6, and they also qualify in another scheduling situation, which is 107-61-4. Washington, however, qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 533-409-33, including subsets, which are 431-304-24 and 326-219-17. Final numbers differ, showing Dallas by one point and Washington by eight points. The situations favor Dallas and I will lean that way, but it is a weak opinion. Final total actually suggests about 42 points being scored and I will lean with the over in this game. DALLAS 24 WASHINGTON 20
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